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2012 → ONGOING Alive Category Health / Tech

Will Ahmed

Built WHOOP. Gave away the hardware and sold the membership, while everyone else in fitness wearables sold devices.

The move

Will Ahmed is captain of the Harvard squash team in 2011 when he starts building a heart-rate monitor in his dorm. He was overtraining and didn't know it. Fitness wearables back then were chasing step counts and notifications. He wanted to know what was going on inside the body. Strain. Recovery. Sleep.

WHOOP launches in 2015 as a $500 wearable. It struggles. The hardware's good but the model's wrong. $500 for a band with no screen, up against an Apple Watch, is a tough sell. In 2018 Ahmed makes the call that defines the company. Give the hardware away and charge a monthly membership.

Nobody in consumer hardware is doing this. Nobody wants subscription wearables, and the numbers scare investors. Ahmed sticks with it and goes further. Signs the NBA, NFL, PGA and dozens of pro leagues to put WHOOP on their athletes. The data company starts outrunning the hardware company.

WHOOP raises at a $3.6B valuation in 2021. The strap is now standard kit across a whole layer of pro sport. Selling a relationship instead of a device is the model every fitness wearable has copied since.

Why it was risky

Subscription hardware messes with how customers think. The maths messes with founders too. Free hardware means you lose money on every new user and only make it back after years of them sticking around. Investors were used to selling a device once. Ahmed swapped short-term margin for a long relationship and a deeper product, betting that if the data was good enough, people would stay long enough to pay it back.

What it looked like

EVIDENCE 01 / WILL AHMED, WHOOP / FOUNDER STORY

The numbers

$3.6B VALUATION IN 2021
Free HARDWARE. SUBSCRIPTION ONLY.
10+ PRO LEAGUES WITH WHOOP PARTNERSHIPS

From a $500 niche wearable to the standard for recovery in elite sport. The membership switch rebuilt the maths by treating the customer as a relationship.

The lesson

The wearable wasn't the bet. Giving the hardware away when nobody else would was. Ahmed turned a device company into a data and relationship company, and took three years of ugly numbers to build the moat. R.I.S.K. is for founders ready to break the assumption the whole category is still pricing in.

→  Take the risk

Risk shape

Mode
FOUNDER-AGAINST-INCUMBENT-BIAS
Distribution
POWER-LAW
Capital
VENTURE · ASYMMETRIC
The other system's verdict
KILLED IN THE MARKET-SIZING EXERCISE

Will Ahmed turned a Harvard dorm project on athlete recovery into a multi-billion band. A corporate wearables team with the same data would call the market "too narrow to invest behind" and pivot to general wellness.

→  See how risk actually works
#RiskThe moveYearStatusLink
01 Steve Jobs Killed 70% of Apple's product line. Bet on taste. 1997 Legacy Read → 02 Phil Knight Put everything on importing shoes. Built Nike. 1964 Alive Read → 03 Virgil Abloh Architect, no fashion training. Ran Louis Vuitton menswear. 2013 Legacy Read → 04 Patagonia Don't buy this jacket. Gave the company to Earth. 1973 Alive Read → 05 Michael Jordan Walked from Adidas. Bet on his own name. 1984 Alive Read → 06 Rick Rubin Started a label in his NYU dorm. 1984 Alive Read → 07 Sir Alex Ferguson Bet a dynasty on teenagers. Class of '92. 1986 Legacy Read → 08 Kanye West (Ye) Burned the playbook every album. 2004 Alive Read → 09 Madam C.J. Walker Built a beauty empire from a stovetop formula. 1905 Legacy Read → 10 Liquid Death Sold still water like a death-metal beer. 2019 Alive Read → 11 Reed Hastings Killed the DVD to bet on streaming. 1997 Alive Read → 12 Sheryl Sandberg Left Google for a money-losing Facebook. 2008 Legacy Read → 13 Indra Nooyi Bet Pepsi on health before the market wanted it. 2006 Legacy Read → 14 Brian Chesky Strangers sleeping in your house. Now public. 2008 Alive Read → 15 Whitney Wolfe Herd Sued Tinder. Built Bumble. Women message first. 2014 Alive Read → 16 Will Ahmed Gave the hardware away. Sold the membership. 2012 Alive You are here 17 Tobi Lütke Couldn't find good software. Built Shopify. 2006 Alive Read → 18 Frank Gehry Buildings everyone said couldn't be built. 1962 Alive Read → 19 Allyson Felix Took on Nike. Started her own shoe company. 2018 Alive Read → 20 Rodney Mullen Invented the tricks. Gave them all away. 1980 Alive Read → 21 Tony Hawk Bet his name on a dying sport. Built an empire. 1992 Alive Read → 22 Jack White Bought pressing plants while the industry scrapped them. 2001 Alive Read →